Increasing homeowners insulation activity in Germany : a theoretically and empirically grounded agent-based model analysis / von Dipl.-Wi.Ing. Jonas Friege. Wuppertal, März 2017
Content
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS VIII
ABSTRACT IX
1 INTRODUCTION 1
2 MODELING DECISIONS ON ENERGY-EFFICIENT RENOVATIONS 11
3 EXPLORING HOMEOWNERS’ INSULATION ACTIVITY 34
4 INCREASING HOMEOWNERS’ INSULATION ACTIVITY IN GERMANY 59
5 CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION 88
APPENDICES 101
BIBLIOGRAPHY 113
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
ABSTRACT
1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Statement of the problem
1.2 Insulation as an economic activity
1.3 A complex adaptive systems perspective
1.4 Agent-based modeling
1.4.1 The decision to use agent-based modeling
1.4.2 An introduction to agent-based modeling
1.4.3 Agent-based modeling in the social sciences
1.5 Objectives and the research question
1.6 Outline
2 MODELING DECISIONS ON ENERGY-EFFICIENT RENOVATIONS
2.1 Motivation
2.2 Approaches to citation network analysis
2.3 Data collection
2.4 Analysis of paper networks and key papers
2.4.1 Central research areas
2.4.2 Technical options
2.4.3 Understanding decisions
2.4.4 Incentive Instruments
2.4.5 Models and simulation
2.5 Conclusions
3 EXPLORING HOMEOWNERS’ INSULATION ACTIVITY
3.1 Introduction
3.2 The theoretical framework
3.3 The agent-based model
3.3.1 Homeowners’ characteristics
3.3.2 Socio-spatial structure
3.3.3 Social network
3.3.4 Homeowners’ decision-making processes
3.4 Experimental design and model results
3.4.1 Experimental design
3.4.2 Insulation activity over time
3.4.3 Insulation activity in different socio-spatial structures
3.5 Discussion and conclusion
4 INCREASING HOMEOWNERS’ INSULATION ACTIVITY IN GERMANY
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Empirical study
4.2.1 Survey design
4.2.2 Findings
4.2.3 Recommendations for the simulation model
4.3 The agent-based model
4.4 Policy design
4.4.1 Introducing a change of house ownership insulation obligation
4.4.2 Improving homeowners’ disposition to insulation
Who should be targeted by the policy?
Should the policy be short-termed or extended for a prolonged period?
Should the policy’s capability be distributed among many or few?
What is the potential effect of harnessing homeowners’ social networks?
How well-endowed should the policy be?
How is the policy implemented in the simulation model?
4.5 Results and discussion
4.5.1 Reference scenario
4.5.2 Policy evaluation
Introducing an obligation to insulate when house ownership changes
Improving homeowners’ attitudes towards insulation
4.5.3 Model validity
4.6 Conclusions
5 CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION
5.1 An answer to the research question
5.1.1 What are the main factors influencing homeowners’ decision-making processes on insulation?
5.1.2 In what way is it possible to model homeowners’ decision-making processes and simulate their insulation activity?
5.1.3 What is the potential of policies designed to increase homeowners’ insulation activity in Germany?
5.1.4 How can the targeted increase in homeowners’ insulation activity in Germany be achieved?
5.2 Methodological challenges encountered
5.2.1 Data utility
How to cope with subjectivity when deciding on which literature to use
How to deal with the non-representativeness of the empirical study
5.2.2 Model validity
5.3 Reflections and future research
APPENDICES
A - Data preparation (Chapter 2)
B - Complementary results (Chapter 2)
C - Supplementary results (Chapter 3)
D - Supplementary data (Chapter 3)
E - The empirical study (Chapter 4)
F - ROC curves (Chapter 4)
BIBLIOGRAPHY