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Three papers in risk-factors and asset allocations / by Marco Erling, MBA, CFA, FRM. Wuppertal, [2019]
Inhalt
Contents
List of Figures
List of Tables
Acronyms
Introduction
Overview, Aim and Motivation
Risk factors
Factor based portfolio construction and Risk Parity
Outline and Contribution
Analyzing Precious Metal Returns using a Kalman Smoother Approach
Factor Risk Parity and Portfolio Weight Constraints
Tail driven Factor Risk Parity with Volatility Investments
Analyzing Precious Metals Returns using a Kalman Smoother Approach
Introduction
Overview
Literature
Mathematical Methods
The Kalman Filter
An introduction to the Kalman Filter
Rauch-Tung-Striebel Smoother
Dynamic Time Warping
Data Description
Precious Metals
Gold
Silver
Platinum and Palladium
Factors
Consumer Price Index/Producer Price Index
Industrial Production
Realized equity volatility
Dollar
Real interest rates/10Y treasury yield (IP)/S&P500
Empirical Analysis
Co-integration
Time-Varying Sensitivity Analysis
Results for Gold
Results for Silver
Results for Platinum
Results for Palladium
Simultaneous analysis of sensitivities
Dynamic Time Warping results
Implications
Conclusion
Appendix Tables and figures
Factor Risk Parity with Portfolio Weight Constraints
Introduction
Related literature
Naive and heuristic allocation strategies
Equal-weighted allocations
Minimum-variance allocations
Risk parity allocations
Factor risk parity allocations
Principal component analysis
Risk parity applied to principal components
Introduction to polyhedra
Factor risk parity polytopes
Data description
Dataset 1
Dataset 2
Empirical analysis
Backtest setup
Robustness
Backtest
Conclusion
Appendix Double Description method
Appendix Random vector for numerical calculations
Appendix Tables and charts
Appendix Matrices and variables
Tail Driven Factor Risk Parity with Volatility Investments
Introduction
Related literature
Factor risk parity model
Expected shortfall as the risk measure
Volatility investments
Volatility futures - introduction
The volatility short strategy in detail
Data description
Empirical analysis
Optimal weight ratio of first two principal components
Backtest
Conclusion
Appendix Closed form solution - modified expected shortfall
Appendix Optimal weight ratio validation
Appendix Tables and charts
Appendix Matrices and variables
Conclusion and final remarks
Bibliography